What are critical uncertainties in scenario planning?

Critical uncertainties are unstable or unpredictable, such as consumer tastes, government regulations, natural disasters, or new technologies or products. A critical uncertainty is an uncertainty that’s key to the decision you focused on from Step 1.

What are the 5 steps of scenario planning process?

Scenario Planning Process

1. Step 1: Brainstorm Future Scenarios. In the very first step you need to decide a time frame.
2. Step 2: Identify trends and driving forces.
3. Step 3: Create A Scenario Planning Template.
4. Step 4: Develop a Scenario.
5. Step 5: Evaluate a Scenario.
6. Step 6: Update Strategies and Policies Accordingly.

What are the disadvantages of scenario planning?

Disadvantages: Scenario planning is a potentially enormous undertaking. It can be a lengthy process to collect data and driving factors; for large enterprises, plans can take months to create. And, factors that impact plans can change quickly.

What are the six steps involved in scenario planning and analysis?

The six steps in formulating a scenario plan are the following: (1) choose the target issue, scope, and time frame that the scenario will explore; (2) brainstorm a set of key drivers and decision factors that influence the scenario; (3) define the two dimensions of greatest uncertainty; (4) detail the four quadrants of …

Which type of planning is based on uncertainties?

Scenario planning is making assumptions on what the future is going to be and how your business environment will change overtime in light of that future. More precisely, Scenario planning is identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of your business.

How do you plan for uncertainty?

Confronting Uncertainty

1. Apply appropriate analytic tools to identify strategic options. If you envision: Only a few future scenarios.
2. Select a strategic posture. Strategic postures clarify your strategic intent.
3. Build a portfolio of strategic moves. Use one or more of these moves depending on your strategic posture:

What is scenario matrix?

The scenario matrix is a deductive method useful for constructing and describing scenarios in uncertain and volatile situations. Deductive scenario methods are perceived as the most analytical and exhaustive ways of building scenarios from an outside-in perspective (van der Heijden , 2005).

What is the difference between contingency planning and scenario planning?

Scenario planning usually anticipates gradual change, such as a loss of revenue over time. Contingency planning is for a sudden, drastic turn of events.

What are the three types of uncertainty?

We distinguish three basic forms of uncertainty – modal, empirical and normative – corresponding to the nature of the judge- ment that we can make about the prospects we face, or to the nature of the question we can ask about them.

What are the four levels of uncertainty?

The authors present four levels of uncertainty: 1) A predictable future, 2) Alternate futures 3) A range of futures 4) True ambiguity.

Which type of planning is best on uncertainties?

Traditional planning assumes a certain degree of certainty about the future and plans around those knowns. On the other hand, scenario planning creates strategies built around uncertainties.

What is the uncertainty matrix?

The Uncertainty Matrix is a powerful tool to separate out facts and questions into four distinct groups, each of which should be addressed in its own manner. Through use of this tool, you can plot what is certain, devise scenarios for what is less understood, and plan targeted actions.

What is the purpose of critical uncertainties?

(2 min) Explain the overall purpose of Critical Uncertainties: identifying and exploring the most critical and uncertain “realities” and formulate strategies that will help you become successful in these different situations.

What is scenarios planning?

Scenario planning is a way of simplifying these complex futures by providing the opportunity to ask the what-if questions. We recommend the following steps to build out scenarios that are keeping you awake at night:

How to use ecocycle planning for critical uncertainties?

Use Ecocycle Planning as input for Critical Uncertainties. The most critical and uncertain factors of the Ecocycle are used for defining the scenarios and strategies. When brainstorming uncertainties, recall predictions-gone-wrong and events that caught the group off guard

How to deal with critical uncertainties with a development team?

Try Critical Uncertainties with a Development Team to define strategies on how to build the product. Have them share the most critical and uncertain realities for which they need strategies in order to be successful.